Description. Greece isn’t the only country drowning in debt. The Debt Supercycle —when the easily managed, decades-long growth of debt results in a massive. Buy Endgame: The End of the Debt SuperCycle and How It Changes Everything by John F. Mauldin, Jonathan Tepper (ISBN: ) from Amazon’s. Endgame – The End Of The Debt Supercycle And How It Changes Everything by John Mauldin and Jonathan Tepper was published earlier this.
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Greece isn’t the only country drowning in debt. The Debt Supercycle–when the easily managed, decades-long growth of debt results in a massive sovereign debt and credit crisis–is affecting developed countries around the world, including the United States.
For these countries, there are only two options, and neither is good–restructure the debt or reduce it through auster Greece isn’t the only country drowning in debt.
For these countries, there are only two options, and neither is good–restructure the debt or reduce it through austerity measures. Endgame details the Debt Supercycle and the sovereign debt crisis, and shows that, while there are no good choices, the worst choice would be to ignore the deleveraging resulting from the credit crisis.
Reveals why the world economy is in for an extended period of sluggish supercycld, high unemployment, and volatile markets punctuated by persistent recessions Reviews global markets, trends in population, government policies, and currencies Around the world, countries are faced with difficult choices. Endgame provides a framework for making those choices. Hardcoverpages.
Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changes Everything
Published March 8th by Wiley first published January 1st To see what your friends thought of this book, please sign up. To ask other readers questions about Endgameplease sign up.
Lists with This Book. Sep 30, James rated it did not like it Shelves: This is another hideously bad book trying to ride on the GFC. What an ugly metaphor! It’s like a gentleman not opening a door for a lady. Yet, elsewhere, the author talks about, how if austerity is practiced, the Greek gov. If the Greeks don’t pay taxes, how can they pay “less taxes”?
Dec 07, David rated it liked it Recommends it for: Chicken Littles, Greeks, Politicians. I’m a science-and-engineering guy.
I can handle math and statistics well enough, but I am certainly not very well-versed in economics. However, like anyone else who’s paying attention, I can see that our economy is in serious trouble and that we’ve just been forwarding the bill on to the next generation for quite a while now.
Endgame is not a macroeconomics textbook, but the first half of the book makes sure the reader is clear on the difference between inflation and deflation, recession and depr I’m a science-and-engineering guy. Endgame is not a macroeconomics textbook, but the first half of the book makes sure the reader is clear on the difference between inflation and deflation, recession and depression, what “monetizing debt” means, why GDP matters, etc. Economics may seem like voodoo at times, but the authors start with the basic international accounting.
An economics major, or someone who reads the Wall Street Journal every day and follows all of it, may find this rather basic, but it was helpful for me. Mauldin and Tepper look at the entire world’s macroeconomic situation and argue that chickens are coming home to roost, the sky is going to fall, etc. However, despite the dire title and some of their dire predictions, they often sound disturbingly optimistic despite telling us that the end of the “debt supercycle” is unlike anything seen in the modern industrial world.
This is understandable when you realize that they are mostly talking to the “investor class” — i. If your big concern for the future is where those spare millions you have lying around can get the best return, then even a Great Depression-level event is not really of heart-palpitating urgency to you.
Sure, it will suck a little that you might have to lay off a few of your domestics, but it’s not like you’re ever going to be hungry. When the authors talk about “austerity measures” and “age-related liabilities,” though, they are talking about social safety nets snapping, jobs evaporating, and pensions disappearing.
Endgame: The End of the Debt SuperCycle and How It Changes Everything
So there is a certain class of people, whom the authors really aren’t talking to, for whom “Endgame” might mean not so much buying fewer boats but trying to stretch the grocery budget with dog food. Throughout the book, they refer delicately to “a rough transition” and “hard economic times,” but don’t really translate it into what that means for the average middle-class or working class person.
However, their worst-case scenarios describe an economic apocalypse in more than one country. They believe we’ll eventually get through it, no matter what, and of course we will — just like the people living in Europe got through two world wars.
Well, except for the few million who didn’t, but never mind. Is the worst case scenario really going to happen? The approach Mauldin and Tepper take is to lay out scenarios from bad to worse: It’s just a matter of how much pain, and spread over how long a period. If the Powers That Be act rationally and responsibly, they can do a certain amount of harm reduction.
Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changes Everything by Jonathan Tepper
If not and let’s be honest, even the authors’ money is on “not”then it will just keep piling up until nothing can delay it any longer. Well, the bill on all our borrowing coming due, basically. Endgame isn’t just about the U. As bad as things may get in the US and the UK, the situation for other countries is even worse.
Some countries could be facing hyperinflation and complete economic meltdown. Theoretically, so could the U. What might happen politically, though, is beyond the scope of this book. I’ve been pretty vague on what specifically Endgame describes, but that’s because I don’t want to try describing pages of charts and economics terms.
This is a very “technical” in economic terms book, with all the graphs and tables and discussions of interest rates and deleveraging and credit and sovereign debt and the like you could possibly want. In a nutshell, the authors say there are exactly three things a country can do when its debt becomes unmanageable: None of those are good.
But there is no magical fourth option. Well, the magical fourth option is “Some new industry comes along that brings a boom of prosperity. The whole book goes through all the variations on the above three options, what they mean, which ones are most likely for which country, and which ones are worse.
For Americans, default is pretty unlikely. Mauldin and Tepper predict a period of severe deflation followed by inflation — i. The best-case scenario, according to them, is cutting way, way back on spending and reducing taxes; they’re definitely more on the Republican end of the spectrum, as evidenced by the fact that they mostly talk about cutting way back on things like Social Security and Medicare and not so much about our enormous defense budget. Still, their points are hard to argue — we simply can’t keep funding entitlements at the levels we currently do.
Do I feel more educated after reading this book? Do I feel better-prepared for whatever financial catastrophe is going to befall us? Well, I’m better off than the average person but definitely not in the “investor class,” so I still feel pretty much like everyone else, subject to the whims of forces far beyond my control. Basically, their best advice for the average person is to save and be thrifty and be ready for a bumpy ride. Oh, and if you live in Greece or Spain? Sorry, it sucks to be you.
May 15, Erwin rated it it was ok. The sort of economic summary that only anglophiles write. The english speaking world is dominated by Keynesian and Austrian economists.
From an American prospective, they like the Democrats and the Republicans.
They agree ie, are opposed to all the things to make middle class citizens better off long term, but they profess a long list of differences that fire up the enc, getting us to line up against each other. The actual economic strategy of the United States if Military Keynesianism. Inste The sort of economic eend that only anglophiles write.
For Americans, the good thing about this arrangement is that for now we have unassailable control over world oil.
Gold, the metal frequently cited as the benchmark for stable money, is far less important to a modern economy than oil. We can print x the number of dollars that are already in existence, and our allies and trade partners will be forced to absorb them.
Don’t forget that Japan’s attack on Pearl was within six months of trade sanctions that cut all Japanese oil imports. In tbe fall ofTokyo taxis dnd converted from burning oil to burning charcoal.
We’ve got hundreds of permanent bases and a blue water Navy that controls all ocean transit, control over most global airspace, and control over low earth orbit. From a geopolitical prospective, there is nothing any foreign power can do to challenge the United States or the dollar.
Invasion of Iraq was a warning to anyone France? The author of endgame often criticizes the efficient market model driven economists in favor of an accounting, common sense mindset.
They are correct, that we need to step enrgame from models that suprcycle accurately reflect the real world, but they don’t step back far enough. They don’t bring geopolitical realities and the US’s special situation into their discussion.
They accept the Austrian economic midset as the status quo, and assume that we can do no better. The reality is that once upon a time, Americans, led by Alexander Hamiltion’s ” Infant Industries ” grew our economy far faster than the British economy. The British system first led them toward empire, and endgams to bankruptcy.
We’re following in sulercycle footsteps as we expand the empire, and if you look at our endgamf, we’re moving toward bankruptcy rather than the trade surpluses and expanding middle class that we once had.
If you’re interested in understanding our economy from a very long term prospective, see ” Uncovering the New World Columbus Created ” discussing the global integration that started once Columbus arrived in the Americas and has never stopped. Our current situation can not be understood without also understanding American Militarism and geopolitics.